广州地磁Z分量日变幅的谱特征

利用1972—1993年广州地磁资料，分析了Z分量日变幅的年平均、年变化和半年变化等低频成分的逐年变化，以及小于60天的短周期变化特征．同时对1972—1993年的F10.7日均值进行了谱分析．结果指出，广州地磁Z分量日变幅的年平均与太阳活动指数F10．7的年平均存在良好的线性相关；具有幅度大约5nT夏季极大的年变化，与太阳活动没有明显相关，是一种季节效应；存在春秋分极大的半年变化，幅度与太阳活动有关，高年的幅度明显大于低年；具有明显的与太阳自转相关的27天左右的变化和明显的与行星波有关的接近16日、10日、5日、2日等短周期变化．广州地磁Z分量日变幅的这些谱特征，有助于更深入地了解中低层大气对电离层影响的物理机制．     

1989年3月太阳活动引起的强烈磁暴群

本文分析了1989年3月上旬一个太阳超级活动区中多次特大耀斑引起的强磁暴群.联系源耀斑的等级、位置等讨论了磁暴形态特征.随着耀斑活动区位置由东向西旋转,磁暴的形态呈现有规律的变化,充分显示了磁暴形态特征有依赖于耀斑位置的中心子午线效应和东西不对称性.     

Modeling of dynamic evolution of coronal loops

Parameters of expanding magnetic loops and arches and of mass flows generated by them in the corona have been computed in a 1D two-fluid approximation. Two possible trigger mechanisms of the coronal transients have been considered: (i) sudden increase of the background magnetic field strength, and (ii) heating and compression plasma inside these magnetic structures. We discuss the formation of shock waves and their dependence on dynamics and geometry of the magnetic structures.     

Solar Irradiance Variability Since 1978

Since November 1978 a set of total solar irradiance (TSI) measurements from space is available, yielding a time series of more than 25 years. Presently, there are three TSI composites available, called PMOD, ACRIM and IRMB, which are all constructed from the same original data, but use different procedures to correct for sensitivity changes. The PMOD composite is the only one which also corrects the early HF data for degradation. The results from the detailed analysis of the VIRGO radiometry allow a good understanding of the effects influencing the long-term behaviour of classical radiometers in space. Thus, a re-analysis of the behaviour of HF/NIMBUS-7 and ACRIM-I/SMM was indicated. For the former the situation is complicated by the fact that there are no in-flight means to determine changes due to exposure to solar radiation by comparison with a less exposed radiometer on the same spacecraft. The geometry and optical property of the cavity of HF is, however, very similar to the PMO6-type radiometers, so the behaviour of the PMO6V radiometers on VIRGO can be used as a model. ACRIM-I had to be revised mainly due to a henceforth undetected early increase and a more detailed analysis of its degradation. The results are not only important for solar radiometry from space, but they also provide a more reliable TSI during cycle 21. The differences between the revised PMOD composite and the ACRIM and IRMB are discussed by comparison with a TSI reconstruction from Kitt-Peak magnetograms. As the PMOD composite is the only one which has reliable data for cycle 21, the behaviour of the three solar cycles can now be compared and the similarities and differences discussed.     

低纬地磁Z分量的半年变化

利用武汉、广州、泉州和琼中等4个低纬地磁站连续多年的地磁资料，计算了各月5个磁静日Z分量日均值与中午1100---1300时段平均值之差(Dz)，对每年12个Dz采用多元回归分析方法，得到各年的半年变化幅度和相位．结果表明：4个站的Dz每年都有半年变化现象；半年变化幅度与太阳活动有关，一般来说，太阳活动高年Dz半年变化幅度明显大于太阳活动低年；太阳活动本身的半年变化，对Dz半年变化幅度有显著的调制作用；Dz半年变化的相位在3—4月(或9—10月)，即极大值出现在分季；低纬地区地磁Z分量存在显著的半年变化，能够反映赤道电急流也有明显的半年变化，这再一次证明，赤道电急流幅度的半年变化，通过“喷泉效应”使得电离层，f0F2产生半年变化，其是产生，f0F2半年变化的一个主要因素．     

神舟2号大气密度探测器的探测结果(Ⅰ)日照和阴影区域热层大气密度变化

选用了神舟2号（SZ-2）大气密度探测器在2001年2—4月间的探测数据,进行日照和阴影区域热层大气密度变化的探讨.结果表明:在高度410km附近,日照和阴影区域大气密度变幅为2—3倍,变幅的大小与地磁活动程度呈负相关关系.日照面大气密度峰区位于星下点地方时1400—1500LT的纬度处,峰值大小与太阳活动程度呈正相关关系.阴影面大气密度谷区位于星下点地方时0400-0500的纬度处,同时在±10°纬度区域中还出现了阴影面峰区.     

Results of solar observations by the CORONAS-F payload

The CORONAS-F mission experiments and results have been reviewed. The observations with the DIFOS multi-channel photometer in a broad spectral range from 350 to 1500 nm have revealed the dependence of the relative amplitudes of p-modes of the global solar oscillations on the wavelength that agrees perfectly well with the earlier data obtained in a narrower spectral ranges. The SPIRIT EUV observations have enabled the study of various manifestations of solar activity and high-temperature events on the Sun. The data from the X-ray spectrometer RESIK, gamma spectrometer HELICON, flare spectrometer IRIS, amplitude–temporal spectrometer AVS-F, and X-ray spectrometer RPS-1 have been used to analyze the X- and gamma-ray emission from solar flares and for diagnostics of the flaring plasma. The absolute and relative content of various elements (such as potassium, argon, and sulfur) of solar plasma in flares has been determined for the first time with the X-ray spectrometer RESIK. The Solar Cosmic Ray Complex monitored the solar flare effects in the Earth’s environment. The UV emission variations recorded during solar flares in the vicinity of the 120-nm wavelength have been analyzed and the amplitude of relative variations has been determined.     

Sunspot activity and cosmic ray modulation at 1 a.u. for 1900–2013

The descent of sunspot cycle 23 to an unprecedented minimum of long duration in 2006–2009 led to a prolonged galactic cosmic ray (GCR) recovery to the highest level observed in the instrumental era for a variety of energetic charged particle species on Earth, over a wide range of rigidities. The remarkable GCR increase measured by several ground-based, balloon-borne, and detectors on a satellite is described and discussed. It is accompanied by a decrease in solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field at 1 a.u., reaching the lowest values since measurements of the solar wind began in October 1963; the solar polar field strength (μT) measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) is also significantly reduced compared to prior cycles since the start of the program in 1976, the polar field in the northern hemisphere reversed in June 2012 and again in February 2014, that in the southern hemisphere reversed in July 2013. If updates of WSO data confirm the second reversal in northern solar hemisphere, it would pose a serious challenge to the Dynamo Theory. The long-term change in solar behavior may have begun in 1992, perhaps earlier. The physical underpinnings of these solar changes need to be understood and their effect on GCR modulation processes clarified. The study discusses the recent phenomena in the context of GCR modulation since 1900. These happenings affected our empirical predictions for the key parameters for the next two sunspot cycles (they may be progressively less active than sunspot cycle 24) but it enhanced support for our prediction that solar activity is descending into a Dalton-like grand minimum in the middle of the twentyfirst century, reducing the frequency of the coronal mass ejections; they determine the space weather affecting the quality of life on Earth, radiation dose for hardware and human activities in space as well as the frequency of large Forbush decreases at 1 a.u.     

Sunspot cycle 23 descent to an unusual minimum and forecasts for cycle 24 activity

The decay phase of the sunspot cycle 23 exhibited two unusual features. First, it lasted too long. Second, the interplanetary magnetic field intensity at earth orbit reached the lowest value since in situ measurements in space began in October 1963. These physical anomalies significantly altered the early forecasts for the sunspot activity parameters for cycle 24, made by several colleagues. We note that there was a significant change in the solar behavior during cycle 22. We discuss the observed trends and their effect on our empirical solar activity forecast technique, leading to our prediction for cycle 24 parameters; cycle 24 will be only half as active as cycle 23, reaching its peak in May 2013. We speculate on the possible implications of this outcome on future earth climate change and the ensuing socio-economic consequences.